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Why Did Haiti Have the Lowest COVID Death Rate? My Conversation with a Lead Epidemiologist

What one of the world's most overlooked COVID outcomes taught me about surveillance, public health, and scientific curiosity

This is a conversation that hasn’t been covered by mainstream media—and likely won’t be. As a Substack subscriber, you’re getting exclusive access to insights that challenge the global COVID narrative from one of Haiti’s lead epidemiologists. Some phrasing may seem imperfect—and that’s intentional. Rather than polish every line, I’ve preserved the authentic voice of the speakers. This is real dialogue, not a scripted PR release. You’re seeing it as it unfolded. The translation support from Jacob Cohen PhD Pharmacology was invaluable.

When I first came across the COVID data from Haiti, I had to pause. According to WHO figures, Haiti—a country with only 2.7% COVID-19 vaccination, a fragile health infrastructure, and repeated crises—reported fewer than 900 COVID deaths by mid-2021. Compared to the staggering losses in wealthy, highly vaccinated nations, this seemed... improbable.

But as a physician and researcher who has challenged mainstream narratives from the very beginning, I’ve learned not to dismiss anomalies. Instead, I chase them. Because often, they reveal the most.

So I decided to find someone who lived through the Haitian COVID response and could explain it from the inside. I was fortunate to speak with Dr. Patrick Dely, former Director of Epidemiology at Haiti’s Ministry of Health and chair of their COVID scientific committee. The conversation—conducted in both English and French, with translation by Jacob, a bilingual researcher—was illuminating.

Here’s what I learned.


A System Few Knew Existed

Contrary to popular belief, Haiti had one of the most robust electronic surveillance systems in Latin America, built up after the 2010 earthquake with significant international support. Over 1,000 institutions reported in real time. Dr. Dely emphasized that 85% of these sites were transmitting data daily, including respiratory symptoms, hospital admissions, and mortality.

This wasn’t guesswork. If there had been widespread deaths, the system would have shown it.

They had sentinel sites, lab-based diagnostics, and national reach. More impressively, they didn't wait for international bodies to guide them—they moved ahead of the WHO, implementing quarantine zones and respiratory surveillance protocols based on early reports from China.


No ICU? No Problem.

Haiti didn’t rely on high-tech hospitals. They couldn’t.

Instead, they invested in early detection, community health strategies, and national communication. Dr. Dely explained how they launched a unified message across the country, making it clear where to go, what symptoms to look for, and how to respond.

The result? A prevention-first strategy that avoided overwhelming hospitals. While some people were severely ill, the system didn’t collapse. There was no panic, no spiraling mortality, and no mysterious disappearance of data.


What Explains the Low Mortality?

I asked Dr. Dely directly: were the numbers accurate?

His answer was confident but nuanced. “Not perfect,” he said, “but close to reality.”

There were deaths. But there wasn’t devastation. The real-time system would have picked up a wave. It didn’t.

Theories about widespread ivermectin use, pre-existing immunity, sun exposure, and younger population are all floating in the background. But no one has done the deep epidemiological study to explain why. And maybe that’s the biggest issue.


When Science Avoids the Question

Why is there so little scientific curiosity about Haiti’s outcome? Why are we not lining up to understand how a nation with such limited resources achieved what others could not?

Could it be that the answer might not support a dominant narrative?

That’s where the real concern lies. Because if we only seek out studies that reinforce our expectations, we stop doing science. We start doing ideology.


What I Took Away

Speaking with Dr. Dely reminded me that science isn’t just about data. It’s about humility.

It’s about asking: what did we miss?
Who surprised us?
And what can we learn from them?

Haiti is not an outlier to ignore. It’s a case study we must understand—deeply and respectfully. Because buried in their quiet success may lie answers that could reshape how we think about pandemics, preparedness, and public health forever.

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