When we think about the Pope, we recognize him as a very important spiritual leader for the whole world, whatever your denomination or religion. As such, when I became recently aware of how unwell he had become, I felt compelled to dig deeper. I had known he was not well, but I didn’t realize the extent of it.
So I did some research and a presentation from March 17th, which I’m going to share with you now. I think it offers some important clinical insights. Because if the Pope, surrounded by every possible resource, can be so severely affected, what does that say for the older community across the world?
This is an important reflection. My hope is that, for those who pray, understanding what was happening might even guide prayers in a more meaningful way. Because if my instincts were correct back then, this illness was likely to be very significant.
Let’s go through the timeline and clinical analysis I shared back in March, because it highlights how outcomes like this, tragically, are predictable—and if they are predictable, they can also be prevented.
Predicted Covid Infection Timeline
In late December 2024, Pope Francis had a minor fall in the Vatican. He was 88 years old, so it wasn’t surprising. Then, in early January, he had another minor accident, hitting his arm against a table and suffering some bruising. Again, not too concerning in isolation.
But then came the 25th of January 2025, when he led a Vespers prayer service at the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls. This was his last significant public outing outside the Vatican before his health declined. And it’s always an important clinical question: when were you last truly well?
By the 1st of February, he attended a Jubilee audience. And here, reports started suggesting that he was already dealing with a lingering respiratory issue, which was later labelled bronchitis. This was the first major red flag.
He had been in close contact with many people just days before, and now he was showing signs of a respiratory infection. This pattern fits very closely with what we understand about COVID presentations, especially the COVID bronchitis that can trigger a lingering cough and airway inflammation.
Following this, his health visibly declined. By early February, the Vatican confirmed that he was battling bronchitis. On the 9th of February, during a celebration at St. Peter’s Basilica, he appeared visibly unwell and shifted his meetings to his residence.
By the 12th of February, at a general audience, he was unable to read his full prepared remarks because of breathlessness and fatigue. These are not typical signs of simple bronchitis unless there's an underlying more serious problem.
On the 13th of February, his symptoms intensified, with flu-like signs emerging—a hallmark of systemic viral spread and an interferon surge. And then, on the 14th of February, Pope Francis was admitted to Gemelli Hospital, presenting with flu-like symptoms, fever, fatigue, and respiratory distress. His diagnosis was bilateral pneumonia—a serious respiratory infection requiring oxygen support and antibiotics.
Now, why is this so critical? Bilateral pneumonia, in the context of a lingering respiratory illness, points strongly towards COVID. It isn’t the usual pattern of a bacterial pneumonia confined to one side of the lung; COVID tends to inflame both lungs, leading to severe complications.
At 88 years old, the Pope was particularly vulnerable. And hospitalization with COVID carries a grim statistic: about 10% mortality within 30 days, and even higher if you're over 65. Up to 12% of older adults die within a month of admission.
Moreover, this situation becomes even more complicated because the virus doesn't just affect the lungs—it gets into the gut bacteria, continues to replicate, and drives persistent illness. Without understanding this, even the best hospitals may only treat the surface problem and miss the ongoing internal battle.
The truth is, without proper strategies to address the gut inflammation, bacterial toxin load, and viral persistence, recovery can be delayed for weeks, even months, with a high risk of death.
Even now, as the world mourns the loss of this great leader, it’s vital we recognize what this teaches us. COVID is still circulating. It remains dangerous, especially for the elderly. The same virus that once locked down the entire world continues to claim lives quietly.
We must acknowledge it. We must find better strategies. We must act.
The Pope’s passing is not just a moment of sorrow. It is a warning—a call to do better for the vulnerable among us.
May he rest in peace. And may we find the wisdom and courage to protect others like him in the future.
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