Expectations, growth, estimates? I'm reminded of the book How to Lie with Statistics, a favorite book of Bill Gates. Let's raise the number of people so the larger number of excess deaths is expected - so it's not really excess. What a joke. Makes me wonder of another potential reason for huge migrant influxes.
One way to sanity-check the new method would be to look at certain age ranges with certain causes of death if the ONS has that granularity available for their new method.
Also, I hope Norman Fenton will take a look at this new method and give his opinion.
Ons has not one single reason to estimate anything they have access to all figures so they are going out of their way to obstruct the true number of people who are dying.
Age adjusted mortality allows for a black box calculation. Estimates should be worked out by calculating the expected mortality rate for each age group (example 25 year olds) separately and then adding all age groups together.
Estimates could be based on the death of anyone aged 25 divided by the population of those 25 years old for a period of say 2010-2015. Then apply the morality for a control period to the actual population for a period of interest like 2023.
Looking for how many deaths to expect this year based on the average deaths over the past 5 years is going to produce larger errors. Looked at on an extreme basis, if over the past five years your populations was entirely based on 40 year olds and in the current year was all people over 80, the average over the past 5 years would be meaningless.
The point is the demographics are changing rapidly enough that looking at the last 5 years for what to expect is wrong.
2020 changed enough from the 2015-2019 average that it was bound to produce low estimates of the number of deaths to expect.
Do the exercise for every 5 year age cohort and add them together, again the age adjusted formulas provide less transparency.
If for 40-45 year olds we are to expect 1.5 per 1000 (example only did not look up mortality rate) and there are a million people in that cohort then we should expect 1500 deaths in that group.
The other thing about looking at the last five years, if 40-45 have a 3 year period of excess mortality, those extra deaths become part of the background and even if they continue to die at elevated levels, then over time the new higher mortality rate becomes “normal”.
It’s so easy to spin numbers, and there has been a lot of spinning going on.
Something else I have wondered: shouldn't the UK government know who is living in the UK at any given time? Being an island, surely they know when foreigners enter, when citizens leave, when people die, when they are born, etc? I could understand if the US claimed to be unsure, but I think the UK probably runs a tighter ship.
Expectations, growth, estimates? I'm reminded of the book How to Lie with Statistics, a favorite book of Bill Gates. Let's raise the number of people so the larger number of excess deaths is expected - so it's not really excess. What a joke. Makes me wonder of another potential reason for huge migrant influxes.
These evil doers will be sorry come judgement day! Selling your soul comes at a very high price! I would not want to be in their shoes! 🔥😈🔥😈🔥😈🔥😈🔥
One way to sanity-check the new method would be to look at certain age ranges with certain causes of death if the ONS has that granularity available for their new method.
Also, I hope Norman Fenton will take a look at this new method and give his opinion.
Ons has not one single reason to estimate anything they have access to all figures so they are going out of their way to obstruct the true number of people who are dying.
"Nothing for you to be concerned about."
The government will take care of you.
Soylent Green will be established soon.
Might be time for the legal experts to step in
Age adjusted mortality allows for a black box calculation. Estimates should be worked out by calculating the expected mortality rate for each age group (example 25 year olds) separately and then adding all age groups together.
Estimates could be based on the death of anyone aged 25 divided by the population of those 25 years old for a period of say 2010-2015. Then apply the morality for a control period to the actual population for a period of interest like 2023.
Looking for how many deaths to expect this year based on the average deaths over the past 5 years is going to produce larger errors. Looked at on an extreme basis, if over the past five years your populations was entirely based on 40 year olds and in the current year was all people over 80, the average over the past 5 years would be meaningless.
The point is the demographics are changing rapidly enough that looking at the last 5 years for what to expect is wrong.
2020 changed enough from the 2015-2019 average that it was bound to produce low estimates of the number of deaths to expect.
Do the exercise for every 5 year age cohort and add them together, again the age adjusted formulas provide less transparency.
If for 40-45 year olds we are to expect 1.5 per 1000 (example only did not look up mortality rate) and there are a million people in that cohort then we should expect 1500 deaths in that group.
The other thing about looking at the last five years, if 40-45 have a 3 year period of excess mortality, those extra deaths become part of the background and even if they continue to die at elevated levels, then over time the new higher mortality rate becomes “normal”.
It’s so easy to spin numbers, and there has been a lot of spinning going on.
easy to check. Contact funeral services data and death reporting from there. Do they match!
Something else I have wondered: shouldn't the UK government know who is living in the UK at any given time? Being an island, surely they know when foreigners enter, when citizens leave, when people die, when they are born, etc? I could understand if the US claimed to be unsure, but I think the UK probably runs a tighter ship.