Over the past few years, I’ve shared insights into the science behind what’s happening within our health systems — and why I often predict what’s coming next. This isn’t about speculation; it’s about extrapolation. When you understand the biology, you begin to see the patterns forming long before the headlines catch up.
Recently, I reviewed the latest NHS A&E statistics, and what they reveal is deeply concerning. In September 2023, there were just over 2.16 million attendances at A&E — a 7.8% rise from the previous year. In 2024, that number grew again to 2.21 million, and in 2025, it reached 2.31 million — the highest on record.
That’s a steady climb every single year, even after a pandemic that should have, in theory, reduced the most vulnerable populations.
If hundreds of thousands of frail individuals had already died during the pandemic, we might expect the system to ease. Fewer elderly and chronically ill people should mean less strain on hospitals. Yet, the opposite is happening.
Why are emergency visits rising when mortality already surged?
A Nation Getting Sicker
Let’s break this down.
Attendances at major emergency departments (Type 1) rose by nearly 4% in 2025, while urgent treatment centres (Type 3) continued a 5% yearly climb. This shift tells me something critical: we’re not just seeing more accidents — we’re seeing more illness.
The demand for urgent care is being driven by people who are chronically unwell, struggling with fatigue, inflammation, pain, and unexplained symptoms that don’t fit into neat diagnostic boxes.
Emergency admissions have also climbed — though the rate is slowing slightly, from 7.1% growth in 2023 to just under 1% in 2025. On paper, that looks like stability. But it’s not good news.
It means hospitals are maxed out, and the system is only staying afloat by turning people away or managing them at home — often inadequately.
