Possible outcomes for the COVID-19 vaccine campaign in Australia
Australia and New Zealand are in an unusual position for this pandemic as their populations are relatively naïve to all variants of the SARS-COV2 virus. This should be an advantage but requires a good understanding of the pathophysiology in COVID-19 in order to choose the correct path.
The closest disease parallel to COVID-19 is Rheumatic fever where an autoimmune response (by bacterial throat infection) causes immune damage to various parts of the body. This point highlights that COVID-19 is an autoimmune disease triggered by the SARS-COV2 virus.
If a population has not previously been exposed to the virus, but their immune system has become primed for autoimmunity through vaccination, the overall outcomes could be worse than no intervention.
Firstly, targeted vaccination to the high risk whilst limiting their contact with the general population. For the low risk (anyone with no comorbidities), allow free spread of the virus to build population herd immunity. Needs to be completed before vaccine protection wanes in about 6 months. Combined with early outpatient COVID-19 treatment, mortality can be minimised.
The only First World country that seems to be thinking critically is Japan.
These two countries are an important cohort - vaccination first and exposure next. Dr. McMillan correctly identified it nearly two years ago when Delta was raging in most places. Hope he studies the developments there through 2022 and see if any tangible conclusion emerges on the interference pattern between the two immunities - vaccine & infection. A comparison with USA is also necessary- which had large vaccinations and large infections (both delta and Omicron) running together in late 2021 and in 2022. Even if it turns out that 2022 was a big mix immunities every where, no matter how that position was reached differently in different countries, a final round of population level anti body profile study on a world scale is now necessary. Without it, we will only be whistling in the wind.
These two countries are an important cohort - vaccination first and exposure next. Dr. McMillan correctly identified it nearly two years ago when Delta was raging in most places. Hope he studies the developments there through 2022 and see if any tangible conclusion emerges on the interference pattern between the two immunities - vaccine & infection. A comparison with USA is also necessary- which had large vaccinations and large infections (both delta and Omicron) running together in late 2021 and in 2022. Even if it turns out that 2022 was a big mix immunities every where, no matter how that position was reached differently in different countries, a final round of population level anti body profile study on a world scale is now necessary. Without it, we will only be whistling in the wind.